Analysts think that a win in India, where Starlink is getting close to regulatory permission for satellite broadband services, may open up further growing countries and support the company’s goals of adding one million users annually.
In addition to competition from firms like Eutelsat and China’s SpaceSail, which is expanding into Brazil, Malaysia, and Kazakhstan, there are still legal obstacles to go past. Additionally, SpaceX contends that American laws disadvantage it to international competitors.
According to experts, however, establishing a presence in India may be a $25 billion boon for Starlink, helping to transform the satellite internet sector there and presenting an alluring argument to other emerging economies.
“Starlink’s contract win is a strategic public relations triumph as well as evidence that it has overcome obstacles that most other operators would have thought impossible. According to Davis Mathew Kuriakose, an independent satcom analyst, “India is not only a credibility boost but also a key test of its economic feasibility in emerging markets,” stated Starlink.
Due to a legislative stalemate over spectrum allotment, Elon Musk’s SpaceX-owned satellite internet network has been waiting for permits to operate commercially in India since 2022. An email requesting comment was not answered by Starlink.
In the impasse, Starlink publicly spat with Sunil Mittal’s Bharti Airtel and Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio over whether India should distribute satellite broadband spectrum administratively, which would assist newer entrants like Starlink, or through an auction, which would favor established telecom operators.
In October, India made the decision to distribute the bandwidth.
Industry insiders say that the unexpected signing of separate agreements by Mittal’s Airtel and Ambani’s Jio with SpaceX this month to introduce Starlink services to India suggests that regulatory obstacles may soon be removed.
Low Earth orbit (LEO) subscription fees, which cover broadband and mobile services, are expected to drop significantly from $148 per month in 2023 to roughly $16 per month by 2035, according to Goldman Sachs. Additionally, Goldman predicts that by 2035, the worldwide satellite market would have grown from $15 billion to at least $108 billion.
According to Caleb Henry, director of research at space-focused financial business Quilty Space, Starlink is expected to attract 3 million customers worldwide by 2025, with 1 million of those subscribers coming from Asia.
Henry stated, “Once approved, India will be the largest contributor to Starlink’s Asia subscriber growth.”
“AN ATTAILABLE TABLE”
According to six industry insiders Reuters spoke with, SpaceX’s pricing strategy will determine how much money it makes in India.
In order to compete with India’s current market, where basic plans start at around $12 per month, three of them anticipate that Starlink will provide competitive broadband options, maybe starting at $15 per month.
“A portion of the market will always be prepared to pay more for convenience. According to Vivek Prasad, chief analyst for space and satellite at consulting firm Analysys Mason, “India is an aspirational market, and the brand value of having a Starlink connection is also an added benefit.”
Over 120 markets with differing degrees of regulatory complexity, including those requiring spectrum cooperation, are served by Starlink.
Although the company’s agreements with Reliance and Airtel require final regulatory approvals, they were struck only a few weeks after Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with Musk in Washington, which some believe may have facilitated the process.
According to three industry insiders who asked not to be named due to business sensitivities, Starlink would have an advantage over any competitors wishing to enter India if it were approved there.
“With a potential addressable market of almost 700 million subscribers, India’s satellite internet sector is just getting started. One senior official added, “Starlink has a place at the table to determine how that market develops.”
An email requesting comment on Starlink’s license approval was not immediately answered by the department of telecoms or India’s space authority.
According to the SatCom Industry Association-India, Starlink’s arrival will encourage the industry’s expansion.
The industry group stated that “this will boost employment growth in satellite network operations, ground stations, equipment manufacture, and rural broadband services, while boosting the global competitiveness of Indian space startups cooperating with international companies.”
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